What scientists are predicting for this year’s fall colors
Science! Forgetting reading tea leaves. Leave the horoscopes at home. Got a Ouija Board? Toss it out the window! Or maybe store it carefully, respectfully in the closet so as not to anger any spirits who’ve attached themselves to cheap, mass-produced board games. Honestly, if you’re in the spirit realm and you get assigned to haunt a Ouija board, do you reckon you can transfer? Are you just hanging out in the toy department at Wal-Mart until it sells? Never mind. I’ve digressed.
If you’ve been using otherworldly methods to predict the quality of this year’s fall foliage, forget it. The scientists at ETSU are here and they’ve got answers and the answers are promising.
The ETSU experts weigh in on fall colors
East Tennessee State University in Johnson City – which bills itself as the flagship university Appalachia – says this year’s foliage show is shaping up to be spectacular, thanks mainly to heavy rains in Spring and summer.
“The majority of the greater Tri-Cities metro region has seen a very wet spring and summer, which has provided for a great growing season and potential for a spectacular fall color display,” said Travis Watson, ETSU’s campus arborist. “The recent cool weather may be an indication of a slightly early leaf season for parts of the region.”
So, what does that mean? It means guests in the mountains may get to see something they haven’t for a while after losing much of the last viewing season to Hurricane Helene. A beautiful, bright and vibrant autumn in the Smokies. In fact, ETSU’s experts say that the early signs are pointing to premium conditions.
Cool nighttime temperatures serve as one of nature’s primary cues for leaf color transition, working alongside shorter daylight hours to slow chlorophyll production and reveal the vibrant reds, oranges and golds hidden beneath summer’s green canopy.
Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee’s official state climatologist and ETSU associate professor, said recent weather is creating ideal conditions.
“The cooler pattern recently has likely been helpful and reduced summer-related stressors. There’s no clear sign of a prolonged hot/dry pattern starting again for the next two to three weeks, so that bodes well for a good fall color season,” said Joyner.
The exception could be parts of the Great Smoky Mountains and areas near Chattanooga, where warmer and drier weather is expected.
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Where will the color appear first?
That doesn’t change much from year to year. Summer is the shortest up in the high mountains. That means spring reaches the higher elevations first and fall arrives at the peaks and works its way down. If you’re arriving in the Smokies prior to October – and even in early October – if you want color, you’ll have to get up into the mountains.
Watson expects the first displays to appear on the highest peaks – including Roan Mountain, Unaka Mountain and Holston Mountain – by the last week of September, possibly sooner if current weather patterns continue.
“The beauty of our Appalachian Mountains lies in its diversity,” Watson said. “The huge diversity of plants coupled with our diverse elevations and habitats allow for an extended color display and opportunity to follow the color over several weeks.”
Is that a little early? Yes. Cooler temperatures in late October and early November may adjust to the peak season slightly, which can stretch into early to mid-November in lower elevations.
How sure are the scientists that this season will be spectacular?
These are complicated systems that can be affected by a lot of factors. The rainfall in the mountains this year as been at times – to use a scientific term – weird. I don’t remember isolated downpours in the mountains like we’ve seen this summer. Massive amounts of water in a relatively small location lead to flooding while the rest of the region is missed almost entirely.
Per ETSU’s scientists, while overall conditions look promising, Joyner noted that areas like the Nolichucky Gorge east of Erwin and the French Broad region between Newport and Hot Springs showed some precipitation-related stress this summer. Recent rainfall may help, but these locations could see slightly earlier leaf drop and less vibrant colors.
Are you planning a trip to the Smokies soon? Let us know where you enjoy autumn the most in the comments!